The Queensland Treasury has recently released a report that outlines the expected future impact on the Queensland economy as a result of the introduction of the carbon tax. The introduction of this report states the overall short to medium term impact the carbon tax will be minimal to minor on the overall Queensland economy.
The figures stated in the report indicate the Queensland gross state product is estimated to be only 0.4% lower by 2019-2020 and 3.5% lower by 2049-2050 after the introduction of the carbon tax. The report goes on to say that the Queensland economy is still expected to be strong, with an annual real growth of 3.5% by 2019-2020.
The important take home message from this analysis is that the information in the report is based on a Business as Usual model and doesn't calculate or estimate the potential impact on the economy if markets, industry and the government modify and adapt to a post-carbon tax environment. If the modification scenario does eventuate, the economy could move towards a growth situation based on new industries and products and move its reliance away from situations that rely heavily on carbon polluting inputs.
The full report can be found on the Queensland Treasury website at: http://www.treasury.qld.gov.au/knowledge/docs/carbon-price-impact-assessment/carbon-price-impacts-queensland.pdf.
Note: The above analysis is based on a particular set of assumptions and an analysis is done with alternate sets of assumptions there will obviously be different conclusions drawn. So it is important to understand the premise upon which an analysis is done before a comparison is done between reports and conclusions.